2006-2007 NCAA Basketball Predictions

College basketball is back as the 2006-2007 season is finally underway. You can feel excitement returning to campuses around the nation, from Gonzaga in the Great Northwest to Florida State in the Deep South. Students, neighbors and alumni are digging out their old t-shirts in support of their favorite program. I posted my preseason top 25 earlier this fall. Now, we at Thoughts on Sports have made a few predictions for the major and some mid-major conferences, sorted by conference, for this upcoming season (* - Conference Player of the Year).


Big East Conference:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Paul Harris, Syracuse
Josh’s Pick - Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Dominic James, Marquette
Josh’s Pick - James

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Jeff Green, Georgetown*
Josh’s Pick- Green*

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh
Josh’s Pick - Gray

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Tom Crean, Marquette
Josh’s Pick - John Thompson III, Georgetown

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Georgetown
Josh’s Pick - Georgetown

Atlantic Coast Conference:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Tywon Lawson, North Carolina
Josh’s Pick - Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina*
Josh’s Pick - Hansbrough*

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Anthony Morrow, Georgia Tech
Josh’s Pick - Sean Singletary, Virginia

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Jared Dudley, Boston College
Josh’s Pick - Dudley

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Paul Hewitt, Georgia Tech
Josh’s Pick - Roy Williams, North Carolina

Conference Champion:
My Pick - North Carolina
Josh’s Pick - North Carolina

Southeastern Conference:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Jodie Meeks, Kentucky
Josh’s Pick - Derrick Jasper, Kentucky

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Richard Hendrix, Alabama
Josh’s Pick - Hendrix

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Glen Davis, Louisiana State*
Josh’s Pick - Ronald Steele, Alabama*

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Jermareo Davidson, Alabama
Josh’s Pick - Davidson

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Mark Gottfried, Alabama
Josh’s Pick - Gottfried

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Florida
Josh’s Pick - Florida

Big Ten Conference:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Greg Oden, Ohio State
Josh’s Pick - Oden*

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Jamar Smith, Illinois
Josh’s Pick - Smith

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - D.J. White, Indiana
Josh’s Pick - White

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Alando Tucker, Wisconsin*
Josh’s Pick - Tucker

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Bo Ryan, Wisconsin
Josh’s Pick - Thad Matta, Ohio State

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Wisconsin
Josh’s Pick - Ohio State

Big 12 Conference:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Kevin Durant, Texas
Josh’s Pick - Durant

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Brandon Rush, Kansas
Josh’s Pick - Rush*

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Joseph Jones, Texas A&M*
Josh’s Pick - Jones

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Acie Law, Texas A&M
Josh’s Pick - Law

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Sean Sutton, Oklahoma State
Josh’s Pick - Rick Barnes, Texas

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Kansas
Josh’s Pick - Kansas

Conference USA:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Willie Kemp, Memphis
Josh’s Pick - Kemp

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
Josh’s Pick - Antonio Anderson, Memphis

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Joey Dorsey, Memphis
Josh’s Pick - Dorsey

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Morris Almond, Rice*
Josh’s Pick - Almond*

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Tom Penders, Houston
Josh’s Pick - Mike Davis, UAB

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Memphis
Josh’s Pick - Memphis

Pacific Ten Conference:
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Chase Budinger, Arizona
Josh’s Pick - Spencer Hawes, Washington

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Marcus Williams, Arizona
Josh’s Pick - Williams*

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Arron Afflalo, UCLA*
Josh’s Pick - Afflalo

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Mustafa Shakur, Arizona
Josh’s Pick - Shakur

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Lorenzo Romar, Washington
Josh’s Pick - Romar

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Arizona
Josh’s Pick - Washington

West Coast Conference:
Player of the Year:
My Pick - Brandon Worthy, Loyola Marymount
Josh’s Pick - Derek Raivio, Gonzaga

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Gonzaga
Josh’s Pick - Gonzaga

Missouri Valley Conference:
Player of the Year:
My Pick - Nate Funk, Creighton
Josh’s Pick - Funk

Conference Champion:
My Pick - Creighton
Josh’s Pick - Creighton

Western Athletic Conference:
Player of the Year:
My Pick - Nick Fazekas, Nevada
Josh’s Pick - Fazekas


National Predictions (* - Player of the Year):
Freshman of the Year:
My Pick - Kevin Durant, Texas
Josh’s Pick - Greg Oden, Ohio State

Sophomore of the Year:
My Pick - Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina*
Josh’s Pick - Tyler Hansbrough*

Junior of the Year:
My Pick - Jeff Green, Georgetown
Josh’s Pick - Jeff Green, Georgetown

Senior of the Year:
My Pick - Alando Tucker, Wisconsin
Josh’s Pick - Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh

Coach of the Year:
My Pick - Tom Crean, Marquette
Josh’s Pick - Rick Barnes, Texas

All-American Team:
My Picks -
G - Dominic James,Marquette
G - Alando Tucker, Wisconsin
F - Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
F - Al Horford, Florida
C - Glen Davis, Louisiana State

Josh’s Picks -
G - Ronald Steele, Alabama
G - Brandon Rush, Kansas
F - Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
F - Jeff Green, Georgetown
C - Glen Davis, Louisiana State

All-Freshman Team:
My Picks -
G - Tywon Lawson, North Carolina
G - Paul Harris, Syracuse
F - Chase Budinger, Arizona
F - Kevin Durant, Texas
C - Greg Oden, Ohio State

Josh’s Picks -
G - Tywon Lawson, North Carolina
G - Wayne Ellington, North Carolina
F - Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech
F - Kevin Durant, Texas
C - Greg Oden, Ohio State

Surprise Team:
My Pick - Louisville
Josh’s Pick - Texas

Disappointing Team:
My Pick - Duke
Josh’s Pick - UCLA

Final Four:
My Picks - Kansas, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgetown
Josh’s Picks - Kansas, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio State

National Champion:
My Pick - Kansas
Josh’s Pick - Ohio State

Tournament Most Outstanding Player:
My Pick - Brandon Rush
Josh’s Pick - Greg Oden

Week 9's Final Drive

We have reached the midpoint of the 2006-2007 NFL season and this year, more than any other, has been the “Year of Parity.” There are only twelve teams above .500 and, astoundingly, only five out of sixteen NFC teams are above the break-even mark. The one positive that comes out of such parity, or, in the eyes of some, mediocrity, is that there will be plenty of competition during the push for the playoffs.

First Down - Top Stories from the Past Weekend

-The battle for AFC supremacy in Foxborough failed to live up to the huge amount of hype that was associated with the Sunday night match up between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. Peyton Manning was as sharp as ever, continually marching the Colts offense up and down the field against a young Patriots secondary. His counterpart for New England, Tom Brady, had an uncharacteristically bad performance. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick also seemed out of sorts in this match up as he seemed to outthink himself at times.

-While very few people realistically expected the Chicago Bears to go undefeated this year, it was hard to imagine anyone predicting the previously 1-6 Miami Dolphins to be the ones to beat them. Rex Grossman once again struggled mightily when facing a strong pass rush. Grossman was picked off three times and fumbled once against a Dolphin secondary that had struggled mightily against the pass all year. This is now the second time in three weeks that the Bears should have lost. With a three-game road trip on the horizon, Chicago could be in some trouble in their quest for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

-In an embarrassing showing on Monday night, the Oakland Raiders offensive line was completely dominated by a Seattle Seahawks defense that, thus far, has been mediocre. Andrew Walter, whose mobility will never be confused with Michael Vick, will have little chance of throwing the ball downfield if Oakland does not manage to shore up their line play. Whenever Walter did get a off a throw, it seemed as if his wide receivers were always dropping the ball. Head coach Art Shell and offensive coordinator Tom Walsh definitely have to shorten their quarterbacks drop backs and start pounding the ball with Lamont Jordan, otherwise this season may get even uglier for the Raiders.

-The Terrell Owens saga continues to get more puzzling in “Big D”. After Owens admitted to falling asleep during team meetings, he again decided to put his own image in front of his team’s needs. Following a third quarter touchdown catch, Owens laid the football down in the end zone and subsequently placed his head on the ball while pretending to fall asleep in an obvious attempt to make a joke about his earlier admission. After Owens returned to the sidelines, coach Parcells was seen talking to Owens in apparent anger only to be hit by more Owens backlash.

-Marvin Lewis and his Cincinnati Bengals are quickly becoming the Portland Trail Blazers of the NFL. Chad Johnson is continuing to whine about his lack of catches while T. J Houshmandzadeh is following Johnson’s lead in terms of immaturity. Houshmandzadeh and Johnson are seen constantly complaining to Carson Palmer and voicing their displeasures to the media. All this while their mediocre performance and lack of effort is quickly turning this season into a disaster for the once promising Bengals.

Second Down - Top Ten

Indianapolis- Somehow, it seems that Peyton Manning has found a way to improve his game. While facing a solid pass rush on Sunday, Manning completed numerous long throws against the Pats while on the run. This had always been his biggest weakness.
Denver - a close battle with the Patriots for second place. Denver’s win in Foxborough puts them ahead in the rankings.
New England - You should expect to see Tom Brady and Company come out flying this week after a rare embarrassing performance in Week 9.
San Diego - LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers continue to dominate their opponents offensively as they await the return of their linebacking crew.
Chicago - An occasional bad performance is to be expected by such an inexperienced quarterback, but twice in three weeks should be worrisome for the Bears.
New York Giants - The Giants offense is still sputtering, but New York has a two-game lead over the next best team in the division. With a win Sunday against the Bears, they will be in position for the top seed in the conference.
Baltimore - The Ravens are taking control of the AFC North behind a suddenly resurgent ground game and a continuously stout defense.
New Orleans - The Saints passed a huge test on Sunday when they showed an ability to bounce back after the previous week’s defeat to the Ravens.
Jacksonville - Byron Leftwich had better hope his ankle injury improves real soon or he may never get his job back from David Garrard.
Atlanta - The Falcons get a pass in their loss to the Lions, but if they get knocked off by Cleveland, you can expect to hear the questions about Vick’s inconsistencies return.

Third Down - Top Games for Next Week

New York Jets at New England Patriots
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears at New York Giants

Fourth Down - Who I Like and Why

New York Jets at New England - The Patriots will bounce back behind a hard-nosed running attack and the steady play of Tom Brady to knock off the Jets.

Washington at Philadelphia - The Eagles have had two weeks to ponder their lousy performance against Jacksonville. Expect McNabb and Company to come out flying this week against Washington.

Cleveland at Atlanta - Atlanta has been getting away from their reliable running game over the last month. Expect Coach Mora to lean on Warrick Dunn and his other runners this week.

Kansas City at Miami - The suddenly resurgent Chiefs will let Larry Johnson pound their way to a fourth straight victory.

Green Bay at Minnesota - Minnesota’s early season magic is quickly disappearing. I expect Brett Favre and the Packers will go into Minnesota and knock off the Vikings again.

San Francisco at Detroit - The Lions offense is just going to be too much for the worst defense in the NFL.

Buffalo at Indianapolis - Without McGahee, the Bills just do not have the ability to take advantage of an extremely weak Colts run defense.

Baltimore at Tennessee - You know Steve McNair has been looking forward to the opportunity when he could show the Titans that he can still play. Expect the Ravens to be extra motivated this week.

Houston at Jacksonville - The Texans have been playing much better of late; Jacksonville, however, is practically unbeatable at home.

San Diego at Cincinnati - The Bengals’ inability to stop the run is not a good problem to have when facing LT and the Chargers. The inconsistent Bengals are in serious trouble in the very competitive AFC playoff chase.

Denver at Oakland - Mike Shanahan and the Broncos are always motivated against the Raiders. I cannot see Denver experiencing a letdown this week.

Dallas at Arizona - After a heartbreaking loss in Washington, expect the Cowboys to bounce back in the desert.

St. Louis at Seattle - St. Louis needs this game far more then Seattle does. I have a feeling the Rams will surprise the division-leading Seahawks.

New Orleans at Pittsburgh - More bad news for the defending champs: Drew Brees and the high scoring Saints will be too much for the Steelers to handle.

Chicago at New York Giants - The Dolphins and Cardinals have given the rest of the NFL a blueprint for success against the Bears. The Giants will apply constant pressure on Rex Grossman on their way to victory.

Tampa Bay at Carolina - After their bye week, I expect the Panthers to get back over .500 this week. Carolina’s defense is not a recipe for success for the 31st-ranked Bucs’ offense.

Who is Better: The Great Quarterback Debate

There has been an ongoing debate throughout the years about who rank as the best quarterbacks in NFL history. You hear the names Montana, Marino, Elway, Unitas, Bradshaw and Favre thrown about. There are usually two sides of the fence you can fall on; do you go for the guy with the great statistics or the one who won championships? Is Dan Marino the greatest, or is it Joe Montana?

Sunday night in Foxborough, Massachusetts, we have the two most prominent signal callers in the league leading their respective teams into battle for AFC bragging rights. Throughout the week, football writers and analysts alike have been debating who the better quarterback is and whom they would take if they were forced to choose. To me, this is reminiscent of the Bill Russell versus Wilt Chamberlain argument, or the Dan Marino versus Joe Montana debate. One player has mind-boggling career numbers while the other has the bling. To me, the answer is so obvious that the fact that we even have to argue the topic boggles my mind. The important question is, “what do you play the game for?” Growing up in your backyard, did you daydream about throwing the most touchdowns in the league, scoring the most points in a game, or being the leading passer in the NFL? Maybe some did, but I dreamed about scoring the game-winning basket that wins the NBA Championship or throwing the winning pass in the Super Bowl. It is all about the titles; championships are what matter in sports, not numbers.

Every year, Peyton Manning puts up gaudy numbers throughout the regular season, leading the Colts to the top of the AFC. Every postseason, however, the Colts shockingly get knocked off and everyone wonders what happened. Up in Foxborough, the supposedly boring Patriots narrowly beat their opponents week in and week out and people doubt their talent. The Pats do not have great receivers…their offensive line is not good enough to handle great pass rushers… their defense is too old to compete. Every season, you hear these remarks said about New England and what happens in January, it ends up being Tom Brady who lifts another Vince Lombardi trophy above his head and it is Boston hosting a victory parade. Back in the 60’s Wilt Chamberlain put up astronomical numbers while his Sixers and Lakers teams dominated their opponents, yet every June, Bill Russell and his Boston Celtics won another championship.

Give me Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman and Bill Russell and you can have Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Wilt Chamberlain. Twenty years from now, when Brady and Manning are retired and thinking about their careers, you can bet Manning would trade places with Brady any day. Great stats look good on paper but trophies and championship rings look better on the mantle.

Week 8's Final Drive

Week Eight was, without question, the “Weekend of the Stars” in the National Football League. While we did not get many close games, we did see some incredible individual performances by the NFL’s biggest and brightest athletes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson all turned in incredible performances in leading their respective teams to big wins.

First Down -Top Stories from the Past Weekend

-In what had to be one of the worst kept secrets in the League, San Diego Chargers star linebacker Shawne Merriman was suspended for use of performance-enhancing drugs. After playing on Sunday, Merriman dropped his appeal of his suspension and will begin serving the four week punishment beginning with Week Nine. Merriman’s decision is a wise one because he will now be eligible for the Chargers’ second match up with division rival Denver. If he had waited for the appeals process to be completed, he would have missed both games against the Broncos. Merriman realized it was important that he not miss both.

-Curtis Martin unofficially announced his retirement on Wednesday. While Martin is keeping his options open for 2007, it is looking highly doubtful that we will ever see Martin running on the football field again. If this is truly the end of Curtis Martin’s career, then we have truly lost a great player. Martin has quietly become the fourth leading rusher in league history after amassing over 14,000 yards rushing during his brilliant eleven year career. While we have all seen his retirement coming, it is still hard to see an injury bring to an end the career of such a class act.

-The Tennessee Titans have suspended 2005 first round draft pick “Pacman” Jones for this week’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jones was drafted sixth overall in 2005 and has failed to live up to his lofty draft status. During his short career, Jones has had seven incidents with police as well as three arrests. His latest troubles involve him spitting in the face of a female student during a private party at a Nashville nightclub last week. Jeff Fisher has to be growing tired of the immaturity and undisciplined actions of his Titans football team.

-Defending AFC champion Pittsburgh is continuing to struggle in their hopes for a repeat championship. Star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw four interceptions in this past weekend’s game against the Oakland Raiders, all of which contributed to the Steelers falling for the fifth time in seven games. Last year’s magic has apparently vanished from the Steel City and it looks like a top draft pick is waiting for the Steelers this off-season.

-Monday night was supposed to be a great match up between the powerful defense of the Minnesota Vikings and the dual running attack of the New England Patriots. Instead, it turned into a wake up call for the rest of the league as Tom Brady told the rest of the NFL to be on alert. Brady gashed the Vikings secondary for 372 yards passing and four touchdowns. New England somehow continues to be the quietest dominating team in the League.

Second Down - Top Ten

Chicago - Apparently there was no hangover effect for the Bears; a 41-0 halftime lead is impressive in college and something you almost never see in the pros.
Indianapolis - The Colts’ run defense left much to be desired against Denver, but Peyton Manning-to-Reggie Wayne was a lethal combination against a previously impenetrable Broncos defense.
New England - Tom Brady and Company left quite the impression on the Colts heading into this weekend’s huge match-up.
San Diego - When you have LT running the way he did against the Rams, you can be down all four starting linebackers and I still like your chances of winning.
New York Giants - After their embarrassing loss in Seattle, the Giants’ defense has come alive and is now dominating opposing offensive lines.
Denver - Denver lost a heartbreaker to the Colts on Sunday; however, I still like the way the Broncos are playing.
Atlanta - If Michael Vick has really found a passing touch, then watch out for the Falcons. With that running game still in full force, Atlanta could be challenging the Bears and Giants for supremacy in the NFC.
Baltimore - Brian Billick took over the play calling and suddenly the once stagnant Ravens running game looked like its gaining some life.
New Orleans - The Saints’ magical season had its first hiccup this past Sunday. The question is whether the Saints can keep this run going or whether the Ravens game a sign of things to come.
Dallas - Bill Parcells’ demeanor changed from old and sad one week to elation the next. It is only one win, but Tony Romo seemed to bring some much needed excitement to the Cowboys.

Third Down - Top Games from Next Week

Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Fourth Down-Who I like and Why

Kansas City at St. Louis - In a battle of two power running teams, look for Marc Bulger and the Rams passing game to make the difference.

Houston at New York Giants - The dominating Giants defensive line should cause nightmares for a still struggling Texans offensive line in what should be an easy Giants victory.

Tennessee at Jacksonville - The Jaguars’ running game should be the difference maker in a low scoring affair.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - After a disappointing defeat against the Giants last Sunday, I expect the Buccaneers to bounce back and get revenge for an earlier loss against the Saints.

Dallas at Washington - In what could be Mark Brunell’s last start as a Redskin, I expect Tony Romo and Company to dominate an underachieving Redskins team.

Miami at Chicago - The Dolphins’ biggest weakness is their offensive line, while the Bears biggest strength is their front seven. Enough said.

Green Bay at Buffalo - I expect Buffalo to go back to a power running game behind Willis McGahee and follow him to victory over the recently resurgent Packers.

Cincinnati at Baltimore - Jamal Lewis and company will run rampant over a mediocre Bengals defense in this AFC North battle.

Atlanta at Detroit - After two straight huge victories, expect a let down from Atlanta. The Lions will pull a big upset win coming off their bye week.

Minnesota at San Francisco - While New England may have exposed a weakness in the Vikings defense; the 49ers just do not have the talent to exploit it.

Denver at Pittsburgh - A fast Broncos defense will prove much too great a challenge for a struggling Pittsburgh offense.

Cleveland at San Diego - The Browns have been playing much better of late; however, they just do not have the talent to compete with San Diego.

Indianapolis at New England - In what is likely to be the most hyped game of the season, the Pats’ running game will prove to be too overpowering for a soft Colts defense.

Oakland at Seattle - The Raiders are playing much better lately, but Seattle still has too much pride to fall on Monday night in front of a deafening crowd.

Celtic Red

The term “Legend” is thrown around in sports today at far to frequent a pace. We hear about legendary players, legendary franchises or legendary coaches. To be qualified as a “Legend” in sports, or even society, is a distinction that few people truly should have bestowed upon them. The National Basketball Association, the Boston Celtics and the entire sports world lost a legendary man this past weekend.

Arnold “Red” Auerbach passed away in his Washington home late Saturday evening from a heart attack. Red is well known through the sports world as a great basketball coach as well as the architect behind the Celtics’ 16 NBA Championships. His keen eye for talent and his ability to see the long range view of players or the needs of his team was a skill that was unmatched by his peers during the more than 50 years that he was running the Boston Celtics. Red drafted players before their eligibility was completed, took chances on players that other teams had labeled “soft”, and drafted players that did not fit the typical standards set by other franchises.

As talented as Red was as a basketball coach and general manager, his greatest accomplishments may have been felt by society as a whole. Red was color blind to the racism of society during the 1950’s and 1960’s. Under Red’s leadership, the Celtics drafted the first African-American player in NBA history, started the first all-black starting lineup, and named Bill Russell the first black coach in league history. Auerbach cared about winning and only winning. Race, religion and social acceptance played no part in his decisions on the court or off of it.

I never had the pleasure of meeting Red, but I did get to watch him use some of his basketball coaching genius for a few minutes back in the late 1980’s. I attended a basketball clinic at the Boston Garden in which Red, Kevin McHale and a few other Celtics instructed some local college kids on the fundamentals on basketball. While this time was only a short period in my life, I knew then and I know now that I had an opportunity to listen to the greatest coach in NBA history discuss this wonderful game. I know I am lucky to have had a moment like that which I can have with me for the rest of my life. Someday, when I bring my children to watch the Celtics play, I will be sure to tell them about Red. I will tell them that he was the most important figure in NBA history and that, as Celtic fans, we were blessed to have him lead our organization.

Tonight, I think I am going to light one up for you Red. Thanks for everything!