Week 3's Final Drive

Monday night in New Orleans was as emotional and magical an evening as I could ever remember in sports. Watching the pride in all of those fans’ faces as their Saints ran onto the field was amazing. I literally had tears in my eyes. Everything about this evening showed the power that hope and love can bring, from U2 and “A Beautiful Day” to Tony Kornheiser and his incredibly eloquent speech to the incredible effort by the Saints. The Atlanta Falcons, while a much more talented than the Saints, honestly had no chance to win this game. The power of emotion is a force that sometimes cannot be beaten…and that is a great thing.

First Down - Things I Liked

-Jacksonville’s effort may not have given them a win over their division rival Colts, but their running game was awesome. Maurice Jones-Drew looks like a starter in the making. Combine him with Fred Taylor and the Jags’ running game is going to be a major problem for opponents.

-Seattle’s passing game was dominant for the first three quarters of their game with the Giants. Leading 42-7 over a team that many considered a Super Bowl contender is a pretty big statement to the rest of the NFC.

-The powerful Patriots running game was a virtual no show in their Sunday night match up with Denver due to the speed and quickness of the Broncos front seven. Denver held the Patriots to just 50 yards on 21 carries.

-The play of young quarterbacks Charlie Frye and J. P. Losman has to be making their coaches happy. Both quarterbacks are showing signs of being the leaders their organizations need.

-Rex Grossman’s continuing maturity is a great sign for Bears fans. After throwing a crucial late interception to Antonio Winfield that lead to a Vikings touchdown which gave them a late lead, you would expect a lot of young quarterbacks to crumble. Grossman, however, lead the Bears down the field twice to put the game away.

-Mark Brunell’s setting of an NFL record with 22 straight completions has to feel great for a quarterback whose job has definitely been on the line. While most of the passes were short screens and quick outs, he still marched the ‘Skins down the field on a regular basis and helped put the Texans away pretty early.

-Another formerly great quarterback enjoyed a glimpse back to his youth in Detroit. Brett Favre needed just one touchdown to become the second quarterback in NFL history with 400 touchdowns. Favre threw for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns in a stadium where he has had many horror stories come to life.

-The overall performance of the Cincinnati Bengals was tremendous in what had to be an emotional game for Marvin Lewis’ club. You know Carson Palmer and the Bengals have hard feelings towards the Steelers and they kept themselves under control to win a huge game in Pittsburgh.

-The effort put together by two teams struggling for their playoff lives in Tampa Bay was inspiring. The Panthers-Buccaneers game was not a thing of beauty, but it was a great game to watch.

-Chris Simms’ gutsy performance on the field Sunday deserves praise from everyone. While we do not know when Simms’ spleen ruptured, his effort was something extraordinary. Wide receiver Michael Clayton thinks it happened in the first quarter; if this is true, then Chris played with a pain that few of us will ever know.

Second Down - Things I Did Not Like

-The Giants’ slow starts have got stop. After last week’s come from behind win in Philadelphia, the Giants trailed 42-3 going into the fourth quarter in Seattle. You will not consistently win in this league with performances like this.

-Kurt Warner’s turnover problems are going to cost the Cardinals any chance they have a playoff spot. Warner had 4 turnovers of his own including a fumble in the red zone during the closing minutes that cost the Cards a chance at a game winning field goal by Neil Rackers.

-Dennis Green’s indecision with his quarterbacks is not good for his ball club. He initially named first round draft pick Matt Leinart his starter for week 4, then on Tuesday decided to stick with Warner. Kurt’s best days are behind him and it is time to let Leinart get on the field.

-New England has major kicking issues brewing. I, for one, was not completely upset with the decision to let Adam Vinatieri leave, but rookie Stephen Gostkowski has now had his last two kicks blocked. It seems likes coach Belichick is losing faith in his young kicker.

-Detroit’s defensive performance was brutal. Coach Marinelli was supposed to bring a much needed toughness to the Motor City. I have seen nothing different in Detroit this season and it is certainly looking like another long season for long suffering Lions fans.

-The continued mediocre play of the Ravens offense has got to be a concern. Steve McNair’s injuries may have taken too much away from his game. While the Ravens are playing solid football, I question whether McNair has enough left in him to lead the team throughout the entire season.

-Buffalo’s penalties and turnovers wasted a terrific game by their young playmakers. For the first time in NFL history, a home team had a running back rush for over 150 yards on the ground and a quarterback throw for over 300 yards and yet still lose.

-Houston’s poor defense is continuing to hamper their young offense. David Carr has finally seemed to catch on and his tremendous talents are really beginning to show. However, for the third straight game, the Texans got way behind and had to abandon their running game all together.

-The Patriots secondary does not seem to have made the improvements many experts thought they had. For the second straight week, the Pats were torched by two long touchdown passes and, unlike during the Jets game, they were unable to overcome their mistakes.

-Atlanta’s inability to match the effort made by the New Orleans Saints. While I really think the emotion of Saints fans was too much for any team to overcome, the Falcons got dominated on both sides of the ball and really seemed to be shell-shocked on Monday night.

Third Down - Top Games from Next Week

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Fourth Down - Top Ten

Chicago - Grossman came down to earth a little this week, but his game winning fourth quarter touchdown drive was a huge stepping stone in his career.
San Diego - The Chargers get their first real test this week when they face off with the Ravens in Baltimore.
Indianapolis - The Colts’ defense is getting worse by the week; however, they still beat an extremely tough team who was looking to knock them off their perch.
Cincinnati - The Bengals got some revenge this week by knocking off the team that eliminated them from the last postseason.
Baltimore - The Ravens struggled in beating Cleveland this past week, but you have to wonder if they were looking past the Browns.
Seattle - The Seahawks finally put it all together on offense versus the Giants, but the injury to reigning MVP Shaun Alexander could be a substantial problem.
Jacksonville - While a loss always hurts, the Jaguars have to feel pretty confident about the way they played.
Atlanta - The Falcons need to bounce back this weekend to show that Monday night’s performance was based more on the emotion in New Orleans than their own deficiencies.
Philadelphia - Take away that fourth quarter against the Giants and the Eagles could easily be undefeated.
Minnesota - The Vikings have played consistent ball for three games against a very tough schedule; I cannot see the Bears getting too far ahead of them.

Foxx Hunting

Last night, David Ortiz hit his 50th home run of the season, which put him in a tie for the most home runs in a season ever by a Red Sox player. Somewhat surprisingly, it was not Ted Williams', Carl Yastrzemski's, Jim Rice's, or even Manny Ramirez's record he equaled. The record was actually set by Hall of Famer Jimmie Foxx in 1938. Foxx is best known for his time with the Philadelphia Athletics, but he spent more than six seasons of his twenty in Boston. In that time, Foxx put up the following numbers:

.320 batting average (sixth in Sox history entering 2006)
.429 on-base percentage (second behind Williams)
.605 slugging percentage (third behind Williams and Ramirez)
1.034 on-base plus slugging (second behind Williams)
222 home runs (seventh, but since passed by Ramirez)
788 runs batted in (sixth)
175 RBIs in 1938 (first in Sox history for one season)

When you consider some of the hitters that have played for the Sox during their storied history, Foxx accomplished quite a bit during his limited service in Boston. For Ortiz to break a record held for 68 years by such a tremendous hitter shows how great he has become in his own right. It should not be long before he holds the record by himself.

The Return of a Legend

On June 27th, 2006, as he made his way to Gold’s Gym in Mashpee, Massachusetts, one of the greatest sports writers of all-time felt extremely tired and pulled over for a nap. Within a matter of minutes, Hall of Famer Peter Gammons’ life would change forever. Peter had suffered a brain aneurysm.

Thanks to the help of some wonderfully talented people, who he thanked profusely in his first column since the aneurysm, his life was saved that day. While we, the writers for this blog, do not know Peter personally, like many others we feel like he has been a part of our life for many years. Growing up in the Boston area, reading his Sunday notes column was a regular part of our routine, as well as that of every other Boston baseball fan. We looked forward to reading his insight and predictions for the coming season. Gammons has an everyman mentality to him while being our connection to the baseball world. He has even played guitar with Pearl Jam and received calls from the President of the United States. While everyone might not agree with his opinions, you will not find anyone in baseball that does not appreciate his knowledge and approachable aura.

Tonight, on the Wednesday edition of Sportscenter, Peter returned to his baseball job. He is back to keeping all of us baseball fans informed with insight and wonderful stories about America’s pastime that only he can provide. Speaking for us at Thoughts on Sports, all I can say is that are all of our lives are better for it.

Week 2's Final Drive

Week 2 brought the return of the passing game to the NFL. After the weak offensive performances throughout the league in Week 1, we saw both of the Manning brothers light it up as well as Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees and the very surprising Rex Grossman perform well. I went down to Giants Stadium and watched a very strong effort by the New York Jets against the New England Patriots. The game turned out to be a much more competitive affair then I had expected.

First Down - Things I Liked

-Eli Manning showed an amazing amount of maturity in what could easily have been considered a must-win game for the New York Giants. He showed ability under pressure that his older brother seems to lack in big games. Manning threw for 371 yards and three touchdowns while helping the G-Men put up 23 unanswered points in the comeback win over Philadelphia.

-The whole offensive performance by the San Francisco 49ers was impressive. Alex Smith seems to have listened well to the teachings of Norv Turner. The big star in San Fran might turn out to be Frank Gore; his running is making a huge difference for the 49ers. He has now rushed for 214 yards and three touchdowns so far this season.

-The very balanced play of the Bengals offense is going to be a huge problem for teams throughout the league. Carson Palmer seems to be showing no fear after his brutal knee injury in last season’s playoffs. The Bengals also got a great running performance out of Rudi Johnson again.

-New England’s switch to a 4-3 defense was a great move on coach Belichick’s part. The Patriots’ talent and depth on the defensive line should be able to crush opposing run games. The Jets’ offensive line was getting pushed around throughout the day, which leads to a very predictable offensive game plan.

-While it is way too early to go by quarterback ranking in order to figure out the best signal callers in the league, I was very impressed by the performance of Rex Grossman. The Bears passing game has been terrific through two weeks with Grossman leading the league with a 128.3 passer rating, helped along by five touchdowns.

-The toughness of the Jacksonville Jaguars made for a great game to watch on Monday night. Jacksonville dominated the Steelers lines on both sides of the ball. The speed and power of the Jaguars defense completely overwhelmed the Steelers and the Jags look like they are going to prove all of their doubters very wrong.

-Fred Taylor might not have put up huge rushing numbers against the champs on Monday night, but he was extremely impressive. Taylor ran hard and fast through the Steelers line to the tune of 92 yards on 22 carries. I don’t know if Taylor can avoid the injury bug that has hampered him throughout his career, but he looks great so far.

-The Bills defense picked up right where is left off after Week 1. They sacked Daunte Culpepper seven times on Sunday and shocked a lot of the NFL with their big win in Miami. The Dolphins are not looking like the contender some experts predicted them to be.

-The Colts’ passing game was immense against the Texans in what proved to be a huge romp on Sunday. Peyton Manning threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns while spreading the ball around to nine different receivers.

-Minnesota has now played two solid games against playoff contenders. The defense has looked excellent against the run and Brad Johnson has continued with his steady, but not spectacular, play. I also liked the running game of Chester Taylor; he averaged a robust 4.7 yards a carry against a supposedly very tough run defense.

Second Down - Things I Did Not Like

-The lack of offense by the Carolina Panthers has got to be a major concern for John Fox. Even though Steve Smith is injured, there is no reason for the Panthers to continue to be completely shut down. I also wonder about the questionable lateral pass by Chris Gamble that led to the game-tying touchdown by Minnesota.

-Chris Simms has looked awful so far this season; while he passed for 313 yards on Sunday, it was still very unimpressive. His passes are getting tipped on a regular basis and he has now thrown six interceptions in two games, with no touchdown passes.

-Oakland looked completely overwhelmed for the second consecutive week. While I know they have played two tough defenses in a row, you just cannot be dominated as badly as they have.

-Al Saunders’ so called offensive genius is being questioned in Washington. The Redskins have all small receivers yet they are running slants and crossing routes. The ‘Skins should be going for the long passes down field, use your speed and quickness to out run your opponents.

-Green Bay’s defense has been ugly the first two weeks. After spending a lot of money this off-season upgrading the defense, they have already been lit up for 60 points. The Packers are also 0-2 at home; the prospects for this season are looking dismal at best.

-Houston’s decision to pass on Reggie Bush is looking worse and worse by the week. David Carr finally seems to have matured as a quarterback, yet they have almost zero running game. Wali Lundy leads the team with a grand total of 57 yards rushing through two games.

-Kerry Collins’ play has been ugly so far this season. Collins now has a 26.9 quarterback rating through two games and zero touchdowns to go with his four interceptions. The Titans might want to start using Vince Young for longer stretches throughout the game. Tennessee has more talent than their performances have shown and Collins has to accept some of this blame.

-The Rams’ inability to put the ball in the end zone is becoming an increasingly large problem. Eight field goals versus only one touchdown is not a winning formula; they are quickly taking the mold of the Arizona Cardinals of last season.

-The poor play of the Giants’ secondary is going to continue to be a huge issue in New York. The Giants are now giving up an average of 308 yards per game through the air; when your defense is only better than that of the Texans, you know you have some issues.

-Kellen Winslow’s mouth is looking like a problem in Cleveland. Romeo Crennel has got to put a stop to this before it gets out of hand. For Winslow to question the coaching staff after all of the stupid decisions he has made is a slap in face to such a respected man like Crennel.


Third Down - Top Games from Next Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Fourth Down-Top Ten

Atlanta - The Falcons have dominated the two playoff teams from their division so far this season.
Jacksonville -Beating Dallas and Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks is quite the accomplishment.
Chicago - If Rex Grossman can consistently put points on the board, the Bears will be extremely tough to beat.
San Diego - The Chargers continue to treat Philip Rivers with kid gloves, but when you have that defense and L.T. that is not a problem.
Indianapolis - You have to worry about the Colts defense, but Peyton is still lighting up the scoreboard.
Baltimore - It has to be such a relief for Ray Lewis and company to not need a shutout every week.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have dominated two consecutive opponents on both sides of the ball; however, their injuries are quickly mounting.
New England - The Patriots’ running game has looked great so far, and when you have the best game quarterback in the league, you have a great chance to win each week.
Minnesota - Minnesota has not looked spectacular in any area, yet they are 2-0 and have beaten two supposedly solid football teams.
Seattle - The defending NFC Champions get Deion Branch for the first time this week; this should lead to a few more points finally getting put on the board.

Week 1's Final Drive

Week 1 of the National Football League season has come and gone. Seeing three home teams get shut out made it about as strange a weekend as I can ever remember. Speaking of home teams struggling , we saw road teams go a combined 11-5. Needless to say, Vegas must have loved this weekend.

Going forward, this is going to be a weekly NFL wrap-up that I hope to have done every Tuesday morning.

First Down - Things I Liked

-Sean Payton did a tremendous job of dividing the touches between his two star running backs, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Each got 22 offensive touches and the two backs combined to gain 209 yards of total offense. You can only expect this to get better.

-Donovan McNabb looked like a new man in his debut against Houston, throwing for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. Donte’ Stallworth quickly made Philadelphia fans forget all about Mr. Owens, hauling in 6 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.

-Baltimore’s defense destroyed Tampa Bay’s young offense while holding them to 116 yards of total offense and forcing Chris Simms to throw three interceptions.

-San Diego’s defensive front seven was absolutely scary in the Black Hole on Monday night. The Chargers defense sacked Oakland’s quarterbacks 9 times, lead by the extremely impressive Shawne Merriman who had 3 sacks of his own.

-The Jacksonville Jaguars played an extremely solid game after hearing the so-called experts down play their team. The only thing I would worry about is season-ending injury to pass rusher Reggie Hayward. Hayward led the Jags with 8.5 sacks last season.

-Atlanta’s defense was all over the field and the Falcons completely dominated both Panthers lines. John Abraham had two sacks and two forced fumbles while Warrick Dunn and company ran for 252 yards over the highly rated Panthers defense.

-Patriots first round draft pick Laurence Maroney was awesome in his debut. His combination of speed and power is going to be a huge weapon for Tom Brady.

-LaDainian Tomlinson sliced up a Raider defense to the point where it looked as if Oakland had given up.

-Chad Pennington was back to his efficient self against the Titans. While Tennessee looked extremely disorganized, Pennington looked great while in complete control of this game.

-Buffalo may have lost to the Patriots but the defense had some very strong moments. The speed of the Bills could cause a lot of problems for teams with quarterbacks throughout the league. Matt Schobel was constantly in Tom Brady’s backfield causing havoc.

Second Down - Things I Did Not Like

-The entire performance of Oakland Raiders was brutal. Aaron Brooks had no time to get passes off yet the Raiders continued to run long routes. The offensive line provided zero protection and opened so few holes for Lamont Jordan to run through the Raiders basically gave up.

-Jake Plummer had that deer in the head lights look back from his Cardinals days. Jake took way too many chances and every time the Rams put pressure on him, he seemed to throw the ball away. You have to wonder if Jay Cutler looking over his shoulder is making him apprehensive.

-The cheap shot by Bengals defensive end Robert Geathers was despicable and merits a suspension by the league. These blatant late shots which injure players have got to stop and League should make an example of Geathers.

-The officiating as a whole was very poor, especially on offensive pass interference calls. In just the games I saw; Cowboys tight end Jason Witten and Giants receiver Tim Carter were called for pushing off on two highly questionable plays that arguably cost their teams chances at victory.

-The highly regarded Washington Redskins defense was extremely mediocre against an average Vikings offense. The ‘Skins could not get off the field on third down and continued to get torched by Brad Johnson and his receivers.

-Tampa Bays offensive line got roughed up by the Ravens defense in what turned out to be a completely one sided rout. Tampa spent a lot of time and money reworking their line, but it showed no resistance to the Ravens physicality.

-Carolina’s defense was terrible against the Falcons offense. Going into this season the so-called experts were expecting John Fox’s boys to challenge the Bears defense for the top spot in the league. I can assure you that Chicago would never allow such a display by an opposing offense.

-Houston’s offensive line left much to be desired this weekend. Gary Kubiak was supposed to come in with schemes he used with the Broncos in order to better protect David Carr. It was apparent pretty quickly that Houston has zero running game and not much more protection than last season.

-The Lions inequality on offense was reminiscent of Mike Martz’s last few years in St. Louis. You cannot have John Kitna throwing the ball 37 times while only running the ball 17 times.

-The red zone inefficiency of the Rams could be a huge problem in St. Louis. Your kicker attempting 7 field goals in a game and winning is not a likely combination most of the time.

Third Down - Top Games from Next Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Fourth Down - Top Ten

Indianapolis - I am not in love with their defense; however, they did go into a hostile environment and won a big game.
Seattle - This ranking is not based on their performance in Week 1, it is based more on the Deion Branch deal.
Chicago - The Bears finally have an offense that might be able to score a few points.
Baltimore - Going into a quality opponent’s stadium on opening day and pitching a shutout is something else.
Pittsburgh - While I don’t think Miami is the playoff team every one else thinks they are, I was impressed by the Steelers performance.
Atlanta - The Falcons dominated a lot of peoples Super Bowl pick from the NFC.
Jacksonville - The Jaguars shut up a lot of their detractors with their win over the Cowboys.
New England - The Pats look like a team changing from a passing offense to a punishing run one.
Philadelphia - The only area Philly looked shaky in was their secondary as David Carr had a chance to make a lot of big plays on Sunday.
San Diego - While they were not exactly playing a Super Bowl contender on Monday night, they did embarrass a team in a tough stadium.

The Long Haul

Rick DiPietro, New York Islanders goalie and former number one pick from the 2000 NHL Draft, was signed by the team to a 15-year extension, a new league record for contract length. The contract will pay him $67.5 million over the life of the deal ($4.5 million a year) and will likely keep him with the Isles for the rest of his career, which is what DiPietro wanted. To me, this is great. This is an athlete who is happy and wants to be with his current team and signed a contract to prove it. The contract is a good one for both sides. DiPietro gets the security of a long-term contract, while the Islanders lock up an important player without using a large amount of cap space (his salary will be a little more than 10% of the salary cap in 2006-07, and likely a lower percentage of the cap in the future). I commend both sides for getting this done.

A Win-Win Deal

The stalemate between the New England Patriots and disgruntled wide receiver Deion Branch finally came to a close on Monday. A day after Mike Holmgren and his coaches watched a brutal offensive performance by their Seattle Seahawks, Seattle traded their first round draft choice in the upcoming 2007 draft for Branch.

From the Seahawks' point of view, the trade was a virtual must-do. Seattle has a receiving corps that lost their most consistent receiver in Joe Jurevicius to free agency and tight end Jerramy Stevens to injury, not to mention their current top three receivers each have their own inconsistencies. Darrell Jackson has a reoccurring knee injury that has prevented him from practicing consistently for over a year, Bobby Engram has hands that seem to fail him on a regular basis and Nate Burleson is another in the long line of NFL receivers who is loaded with talent but just seems to lack the desire. What they get in Deion Branch is a hard working, great route runner who has a huge heart. Branch might be undersized compared to the top wide receivers in the league, but he has a desire to win unlike a lot of his counterparts throughout the league.

From a Patriots fan’s perspective, I think this trade is a home run. All I keep hearing about is that the New England front office is robbing Tom Brady of all of his weapons. This is so far from the truth it drives me crazy. The offense is all about Brady and the offensive line. The Patriots do not need to spend on big money wide receivers to win titles. If you don’t believe me, then just look back and check out who the starting receivers were during Brady’s three Super Bowl wins. By the end of this season, Branch will not be missed in Foxborough, and giving Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick another first round draft pick is pretty much like giving Bill Gates a lottery ticket that most likely will pay out big. It’s really just unfair to the rest of the NFL.

Ruth, Maris, Howard?

Much of the talk around the internet lately is whether Ryan Howard is in pursuit of the single season home run record, having hit 53 in 138 games. Because of allegations and suspicions surrounding Mark McGwire's 70 in 1998 (and 65 in 1999), Barry Bonds' 73 in 2001, and Sammy Sosa's three 60 home run seasons, many will consider Howard the record holder if he hits more than Roger Maris' 61. What do I think?

1. Home runs just do not disappear
We do not know the extent of Bonds', or anyone else's, use of performance enhancers. We do not know exactly what effect performance enhancers have, how many home runs would have been merely fly balls to the warning track without chemical assistance. We do not know how many pitchers Bonds (or McGwire or Sosa or anyone) faced were using performance enhancers. That is a lot of information to be missing when passing judgment. Every era is viewed in its own context. The "Steroid Era" will be judged accordingly, but we cannot pretend it never happened. The record books should not be adjusted for the "Steroid Era."

2. Bigger numbers does not mean better numbers
Beginning on April 8, 1974, Babe Ruth no longer held the records for home runs in a single season or a career. However, most people still consider him the greatest home run hitter of all-time. Why? When Ruth hit 60 home runs, he out-homered every team in the American League except for his own. He hit nearly 14% of the home runs by American League batters. Ruth was a statistical anomaly, he hit home runs when not many others did. Being passed on all-time home run lists has not changed this. Along the same lines, just because Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire have higher single season home run totals does not mean they are in Ruth's class (or Maris' class for that one season). Baseball fans have been judging its records for years. That will not change.

3. Dominance is relative
Again, viewing baseball records in the context of their era is the key. Ruth hit 60 home runs when only one other person in the AL, Lou Gehrig, hit more than 18. Maris broke a record that had stood for 37 years, one that even the best of home run hitters after Ruth could not reach. McGwire and Bonds hit 70 and 73 home runs when hitting 60 was nearly commonplace, when who knows how many other hitters were aided by performance enhancers. In short, these totals are still accomplishments when viewed against their peers. Against similar accomplishments of other time periods, some of these high totals lose their luster.

Ryan Howard may hit 60, 61, 62, or more home runs. If he reaches 62, will he hold the single season home run record? No. Will he have one of the most impressive home run seasons in history, more impressive than the seasons of the "Steroid Era?" Yes. In my opinion, the magic number is 60. Any time a player tops that, it is impressive, performance enhancers or not. How impressive is in the eye of the beholder.

On a side note, when Howard hit three home runs in the first game of a double header on Sunday, I became curious to see if he was a product of the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park. I was pleased to see that his home run totals at home and on the road are very similar, and there is no indication that he benefits significantly from his home ballpark. That is one thing his detractors, if there are any, will not be able to use to diminish his incredible performance.

2006 National Football League Preview

AFC East
1. New England Patriots
What I like: The Patriots have arguably the strongest defensive line in the conference and, with the addition of Laurence Maroney, they will have a dual threat running game that Tom Brady has never enjoyed. When provided with a great running game, Brady will have open passing lanes like he has never seen. The lack of great receivers has never hurt Tom before and I can’t see it happening now.
Biggest Question: Does the aging linebacking core led by Tedy Bruschi have enough in them to last the season?
Prediction: Brady and Belichick lead the Patriots to another AFC East title and should grab one of the first round byes.

2. Miami Dolphins
What I like: The addition of Daunte Culpepper to Coach Nick Saban’s offense should turn a major weakness into a huge strength. Ronnie Brown also gets his first crack as the lead running back for an entire season. Saban is also a disciple of Belichick so you know his team will never hurt itself.
Biggest Question: The Miami secondary has gone from a strength to a huge weakness; can they overcome the departures of Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison over the past two off seasons?
Prediction: The Dolphins will compete for a wild card spot; however, their weak secondary and aging veterans on defense will come up just short this season.

3. Buffalo Bills
What I like: J. P. Losman has looked like a new man this preseason and has a chance to lead this up and coming offense with young stars such as Willis McGahee and Lee Evans. Buffalo also has solid defense led by returning start Takeo Spikes. Spikes is coming off a major knee injury but has looked solid this preseason and poised to wreak havoc on the rest of the AFC East.
Biggest Question: Can Losman carry over his preseason play the whole regular season?
Prediction: I expect an up and down season for the Buffalo Bills, but they should finish with a .500 record this season though.

4. New York Jets
What I like: The addition of former Patriots defensive coordinator Eric Mangini as head coach is a great step in the right direction. The Jets also started their rebuilding by drafting two potential stud offensive linemen in D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold in the first round.
Biggest Question: How will the Jets score?
Prediction: New York will play hard for Mangini, but the Jets look like the leading candidate for the top pick in next year’s draft.

AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals
What I like: Carson Palmer looked great in the third preseason game which has to be a huge relief for Bengals fans. Cincinnati possesses great depth on in the running game with Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry leading the attack. The Bengals also brought in run stopper Sam Adams to anchor the middle of their defensive line.
Biggest Question: Will the very disturbing trend of bad behavior by the young Bengal players carry over to the field?
Prediction: Carson Palmer and the Johnson boys, Chad and Rudi, dominate their opponents relentlessly on offense to lead the Bengals to back-to-back division titles.

2. Baltimore Ravens
What I like: Ever since the Ravens let Trent Dilfer go following their 2000 Super Bowl Championship, they have really been struggling to find a replacement. The answer finally arrived this off-season with the addition of former MVP Steve McNair. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will once again lead a hard-nosed defensive attack.
Biggest Question: Can McNair stay healthy for the entire 16-game season?
Prediction: I look for the Ravens to be in a battle for one of the wild card spots, and if McNair can stay healthy, then Baltimore returns to the playoffs.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers
What I like: The defending champions still have their superstars in Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Troy Polamalu leading their team. The Steelers also have a rare benefit in today’s NFL - the continuity of the same head coach for fifteen seasons.
Biggest Question: Can the Steelers overcome the losses of Jerome Bettis and Antwaan Randle El to their offense?
Prediction: After a postseason where every break went Pittsburgh’s way, the Steelers will struggle in their attempt to defend their crown and miss out on the playoffs.

4. Cleveland Browns
What I like: Romeo Crennel brought in a lot of veteran leaders in linebacker Willie McGinest, wide receiver Joe Jurevicius and defensive tackle Ted Washington. Young stars Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards have finally recovered from a series of serious injuries.
Biggest Question: Does young quarterback Charlie Frye have the ability to lead the Browns in what looks to be a very tough division?
Prediction: The Browns look on their way towards contention and should finish around 7-9 this season.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
What I like: Anytime you have Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, you know that the offense will be marching up and down the field. The Colts also brought in Adam Vinatieri, who is arguably the greatest clutch kicker in NFL history. Vinatieri’s addition also weakens their biggest nemesis in the New England Patriots.
Biggest Question: Can the duo of Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes come close to matching the production of Edgerrin James?
Prediction: The Colts should once again run away with the AFC South. I question, however, whether their defense or running game is strong enough to reach that ever-eluding Super Bowl.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
What I like: Byron Leftwich and his young receivers Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford lead a passing game built on size and power. The Jaguars also have a dominant defensive line lead by studs Marcus Stroud and John Henderson.
Biggest Question: Can Fred Taylor last an entire season absorbing the pounding of being the every down back after the loss of back-up Greg Jones?
Prediction: After making the playoffs last year, the Jaguars will once again battle for a wild card spotbut the running game will not be strong enough to keep them in the fight to the end.

3. Houston Texans
What I like: Gary Kubiak takes over the head coaching reins after the Dom Capers era finally reached its end. My sources have indicated a much-improved performance so far out of David Carr. If the offensive line can keep Carr upright for an extended amount of time, then I expect big numbers through the air with his receiving tandem of Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds.
Biggest Question: Domanick Davis’ future looks highly doubtful due to a painful knee injury; will the Texans be able to provide enough of a ground game to keep teams honest?
Prediction: Coach Kubiak straightens the offense out enough to provide Houston fans with a reason for optimism in the future.

4. Tennessee Titans
What I like: The Titans added a ton of offensive talent this off-season to a team that is slowly trying to bounce back from salary cap hell. They added receiver David Givens, center Kevin Mawae and two highly regarded rookies in quarterback Vince Young and controversial halfback LenDale White. Tennessee also is coached by one of the most overlooked great coaches in the league in Jeff Fisher.
Biggest Question: After losing their team leader and former MVP Steve McNair, will career backup Billy Volek or Kerry Collins be able to lead the team?
Prediction: I think the Titans will be more competitive this season, but, unfortunately, the results will not come in the win-loss column.

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
What I like: The Chargers are loaded for what should be a return to the top of the AFC West. When you have the best running back in the league in LaDainian Tomlinson and the top tight end in Antonio Gates, you have the chance to put a ton of points on the board. While Philip Rivers may be taking over the starting quarterback reins for first time, I still expect a solid, if not spectacular, season from him. The Chargers also have what might be the most dominant run defense in the league along with an improving defensive backfield with young members who are beginning to get it.
Biggest Question: Is Rivers mentally ready to lead this team to the top of the AFC?
Prediction: Marty Schottenheimer takes enough pressure off Rivers by running the ball with LT and company, which will enable the young quarterback to lead the Chargers to the top of the AFC West.

2. Denver Broncos
What I like: The Broncos have one of the most complete rosters in the entire NFL this season. The pass rush greatly improved last season, which works well with their fast linebacker corps. Denver always has the most feared offensive line in the league, though maybe not the most talented, but they are the line no defensive lineman wants to play against. The addition of Javon Walker gives Rod Smith his most talented partner since Ed McCaffrey.
Biggest Question: Can Mike Shanahan turn another unknown running back into a 1000-yard stud?
Prediction: Jake Plummer is forced to gamble more this year with a weakened running game, and this prevents Denver from winning the division. They will, however, have enough talent to secure a wild card spot.

3. Oakland Raiders
What I like: Art Shell takes over a job he never should have lost in the first place and gives the Raiders the tough leadership they have surely been lacking. Oakland also has plenty of skill players in place with veterans such as Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and Lamont Jordan leading the offensive attack.
Biggest Question: The Raiders have plenty of talent on offense, but the big question is will they stop anyone on defense in what promises to be a high scoring division?
Prediction: Having Art Shell in place leads the Raiders out of the basement, but having Aaron Brooks leading your offense should be a frightening thought for the fans in the Black Hole. Oakland fans should be satisfied with a third place finish.

4. Kansas City Chiefs
What I like: The Chiefs still have plenty of skill players on offense with Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson leading the way. Kansas City also boosted their defense with an aging, yet still talented, cornerback in Ty Law.
Biggest Question: How badly does the loss of offensive coordinator Al Saunders hurt the Chiefs?
Prediction: Herm Edwards’ poor coaching hampers the talents of this high-powered offensive team to the point that they fall into last place in the AFC West.

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys
What I like: The Cowboys might have the most talented team in the NFC. If Drew Bledsoe is provided the time to reach receivers Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens and tight end Jason Witten, the ‘Boys should score a ton of points. Dallas is also extremely deep at the linebacker position and in the secondary with up-and-coming stars such as DeMarcus Ware, Roy Williams and Bobby Carpenter.
Biggest Question: Can Julius Jones and Marion Barber provide coach Parcells with the necessary running game he covets?
Prediction: The Cowboys’ talent is just too much for their fellow NFC East counterparts to overcome in what will be a tremendous divisional battle.

2. New York Giants
What I like: Eli Manning should have a lot of weapons at his disposal with Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremey Shockey and Tiki Barber with which to work. The Giants also have what looks to be the best pass rush in the league, led by defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants also bolstered their cornerback corps with former All-Pro Sam Madison joining via free agency.
Biggest Question: Has Eli Manning improved enough to avoid making the costly mistakes that lead to 19 turnovers on his part last season?
Prediction: The Giants will grab a wild card spot after a dog fight with the Washington Redskins.

3. Washington Redskins
What I like: The Redskins return almost the entire defense that was one of the stingiest in the league. Washington also hired Al Saunders away from the Chiefs and rewarded him with wide receivers Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd to team up with speedster Santana Moss. The Skins also have one of the NFL’s best running backs in Clinton Portis, who is coming off a 1,500-yard season.
Biggest Question: Does Mark Brunell have enough left in the tank to lead Washington back to the playoffs or will youngster Jason Campbell be called upon to lead the team?
Prediction: Brunell will not be able to lead the ‘Skins through an entire season and Campbell’s inexperience will keep them out of a playoff spot.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
What I like: As usual, Andy Reid has built incredible line depth on both the offensive and defensive ends. The Eagles also have one of the most explosive backs in Brian Westbrook when he is healthy. Whenever you have Donovan McNabb leading your team, you know you will be competitive.
Biggest Question: Can Westbrook stay healthy enough to take the pressure off of McNabb?
Prediction: A mediocre receiving corps along with an average secondary proves too much for the Eagles to overcome in what is easily the top division in football.

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears
What I like: The Bears are, again, loaded on defense, led by Pro Bowlers Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nathan Vasher and Mike Brown. Chicago also has what could be the top running back duo in the league if Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson can both stay healthy and keep their egos aside for the betterment of the team.
Biggest Question: Do the Bears have enough of a passing attack to keep teams from stuffing the box against them?
Prediction: Chicago will cruise to one of the top two spots in the NFC in what looks like a very weak NFC North.

2. Detroit Lions
What I like: Rod Marinelli brings toughness to a defense that the Lions have sorely been lacking. He is also smart enough to hand over the offensive reins to Mike Martz. Martz should be able to get the most out of underachieving receivers Mike and Roy Williams as well as further develop up-and-coming star running back Kevin Jones.
Biggest Question: Does Jon Kitna have the talent to help the Lions to a wild card spot?
Prediction: The Lions fall short of the playoffs, but finish above .500 for the first time since the 2000 season.

3 Minnesota Vikings
What I like: After years of having a defense that dragged down their offense, the Vikings have finally loaded up on that side of the ball. Minnesota has possibly the top secondary in the league with Fred Smoot, Antoine Winfield, Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith leading the way. The Vikings also brought in Chester Taylor and Tony Richardson to lead what should be a very powerful running attack. Furthermore, Minnesota signed the top guard in the league away from the Seattle Seahawks in Steve Hutchinson.
Biggest Question: Do the Vikings have the receivers to help an aging Brad Johnson succeed?
Prediction: The Vikings lack of receivers will hamper Brad Johnson too much for Minnesota to see the playoffs this season. The Vikings’ struggles will lead to fans seeing rookie quarterback Tavaris Jackson getting a few starts by the season’s end.

4. Green Bay Packers
What I like: The Packers made a lot of additions on the defensive side of the ball which can only be improvements after last season’s dismal showing. Green Bay drafted potential Defensive Rookie of the Year in Ohio State University linebacker A. J. Hawk and also signed former Heisman Trophy winner Charles Woodson to team up with Al Harris to form a very solid cornerback tandem. The one positive Green Bay may have on the offensive side of the ball is that all of the injuries to their running backs last season should result in increased depth behind Ahman Green.
Biggest Question: Can this young and inexperienced offensive line give Brett Favre the time he needs to find open receivers?
Prediction: The Packers will struggle to move the ball behind a very young line and even if they can protect Favre, the question of who will catch the ball is always there. It will be another dismal season in Green Bay.

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers
What I like: Carolina looks to be loaded on both sides of the ball this season. Jake Delhomme has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the league and, for the first time since Mushin Muhammad departed for Chicago, he has a second receiver to catch the ball. Keyshawn Johnson has joined the Panthers as the new tag team partner for Steve Smith. This duo is going to cause nightmares for opposing secondaries. The Panthers also have possibly the strongest defensive line in the NFC with Kris Jenkins and Julius Peppers leading the way.
Biggest Question: Can the John Fox get the consistent running game he loves out of injury prone DeShaun Foster and rookie DeAngelo Williams?
Prediction: Carolina’s experience gives them the division title over the young Buccaneers offense.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I like: Tampa Bay spent a lot of their off-season bringing in new offensive lineman in hopes of finally giving their young but extremely gifted backfield some time. The Buccaneers are loaded with young weapons on offense with Chris Simms, Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and Michael Clayton joining veterans Joey Galloway and Mike Alstott. Even with these young emerging stars, the Bucs bread and butter remains their dominating defense loaded with veterans like Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber and Simeon Rice
Biggest Question: Is Simms mature enough to lead Tampa Bay back to the championship level?
Prediction: Tampa Bay will grab a wild card spot in what looks to be a stepping stone year towards another title.

3. Atlanta Falcons
What I like: The Falcons boosted what was an extremely poor defensive line with the additions of John Abraham and Grady Jackson. Atlanta also possess one of the strongest running games in the league led by underrated Warrick Dunn and the extremely dangerous Michael Vick. The Falcons also have one of the most talented tight ends in the league in Alge Crumpler. Crumpler always seems to be open and he is about the only receiver that Vick seems to consistently find.
Biggest Question: Does Vick finally mature into a more accurate passer or is this the beginning of the end for his quarterbacking duties in Atlanta?
Prediction: The Falcons are just too dependent on the running game to compete with Carolina and Tampa Bay. Vick will continue to struggle in the West Coast passing game.

4. New Orleans Saints
What I like: The Saints might have just gotten the most exciting running back to enter the NFL since Barry Sanders. Reggie Bush joins Deuce McAllister in what should be the most lethal backfield the league has seen in years. The Saints brought in former San Diego Chargers Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees to lead the offense. The last addition for New Orleans is new head coach Sean Payton; he should bring a much needed “tough love” approach to a perennially struggling franchise.
Biggest Question: Can the Saints stop anyone in what should be an extremely high scoring division?
Prediction: New Orleans will score a ton of points and might be the most exciting team to watch in the NFC, but, unfortunately, they will give up way too many points to put together a winning season.

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
What I like: The defending NFC Champion Seahawks look poised to return to the Super Bowl. Seattle has a tremendous offense led by quarterback Matt Hasselback, defending MVP Shaun Alexander and a solid wide receiver corps made up of Darrell Jackson and Nate Burleson. The Seahawks also have developed a young and exciting defense made up of Grant Winstrom, Julian Peterson, Lofa Tatupa and Marcus Trufant.
Biggest Question: Can all of the Seahawks repeat their career year performances?
Prediction: The Seahawks have a huge advantage over their fellow NFC contenders in that their division is extremely weak. This will allow the ‘Hawks to gain home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

2. Arizona Cardinals
What I like: Arizona finally added the running game they have been missing for as long as the franchise has been in existence. Edgerrin James brings his offensive skills to the desert to help Kurt Warner and company. The Cardinals also posses what is unquestionably the top young wide receiver duo in the league with stars Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. If the young Cardinals line can give Warner enough time to find these receivers, then I expect Arizona to put on a show in their brand new stadium.
Biggest Question: Do the Cardinals have enough skill on defense to consistently win?
Prediction: The Cardinals will finally get back over .500 for the first time since 1998 but are still one year away from the playoffs.

3. St. Louis Rams
What I like: The Rams still have plenty of talent on offense with a highly skilled receiving trio of Torry Holt, Kevin Curtis and Isaac Bruce. New coach Scott Linehan has promised a more balance offense this year using the skills of hard-nosed running back Steven Jackson much more then Mike Martz did. St. Louis also has a steady quarterback leading them in the always-consistent Marc Bulger.
Biggest Question: This seems like a broken record in St. Louis, but can they stop anyone on defense and special teams?
Prediction: The Rams will finally balance out their offense, which should keep Bulger upright more often. Even with the offense in place, they will have trouble slowing down their opponents and this will keep them out of postseason contention.

4. San Francisco 49ers
What I like: San Francisco brought in some offensive talent to help move the ball this year. Rookie Vernon Davis looks like he could join the likes of Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez in the upper echelon of tight ends. The Niners are counting on offensive coordinator Norv Turner to help develop second-year quarterback Alex Smith. So far it looks promising for Smith; he has really shown some consistency this preseason.
Biggest Question: Will the young 49ers consistently play well enough to win games?
Prediction: It will be another long season in San Francisco, but the 49ers future is finally looking brighter.

Playoff Prediction
AFC:
Division Winners:
New England Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts
San Diego Chargers

Wild Cards:
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos

NFC:
Division Winners:
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks

Wild Cards:
New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AFC Championship Game
New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Championship Game
Dallas Cowboys over Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowl
New England Patriots over Dallas Cowboys