My NBA Mock Lottery
With the NBA Draft three days away, it is time for me to do a mock draft of the lottery picks. This one will be a little different though. I will tell you who I think will be taken in each spot, as well as who I think should be drafted. So without further adieu...
1. Toronto Raptors
They probably will take: Andrea Bargnani
I think they should take: Bargnani
I expect Bryan Colangelo to do what everyone thinks he will. That is a good thing, because Bargnani is the best prospect available.
2. Chicago Bulls
They probably will take: LaMarcus Aldridge
I think they should take: Aldridge
There are rumors of a trade, and for a while the talk was of Tyrus Thomas heading to Chicago, but John Paxson should (and probably will) take the player that will make the biggest impact on his team.
3. Charlotte Bobcats
They probably will take: Rudy Gay
I think they should take: Gay
Gay is the most physically talented player in the draft, and adding him to the Bobcats shifts Gerald Wallace to shooting guard and gives them a very long, atheltic team. They would still need a shooter, but can address that need through other channels.
4. Portland Trailblazers
They probably will take: Adam Morrison
I think they should take: Tyrus Thomas
Morrison is a popular name who happens to be from a school in the Pacific Northwest. That should not decide his draft position. The same goes for Brandon Roy, though I think he would be a better pick than Morrison. Both play the same position as Martell Webster, the team first pick from last year. Darius Miles has one foot out the door, and in Thomas they get a talented "combo forward" and again, the best player available.
5. Atlanta Hawks
They probably will take: Shelden Williams
I think they should take: Brandon Roy
It is rumored that The Landlord has a promise from Atlanta. For their sake, I hope they fulfill this promise by trading down. However, Roy should be their pick here. Putting him in a backcourt with Joe Johnson at the point, with Roy occasionally handling the ball, the Hawks could make a solid playoff run. They could also go with a true point guard and pick Marcus Williams.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
They probably will take: Tyrus Thomas
I think they should take: Adam Morrison
Thomas may fall into their laps, and if he does, I do not blame them for taking him. However, I do not think he should be available for them. Adam Morrison would be. Morrison is projected much higher than I think he should be, but he would be a good complimentary scorer to Kevin Garnett with the sixth pick.
7. Boston Celtics
They probably will take: Marcus Williams
I think they should take: M. Williams
Delonte West is not the answer at the point guard position. Williams is the floor general this team needs with its young core.
8. Houston Rockets
They probably will take: Brandon Roy
I think they should take: Rodney Carney
They need a shooter. Roy would be a solid pick here, but in my scenario, he is off the board. Carney, however, gives them a solid and improving shooter with great athleticism. His defense will allow Tracy McGrady to focus more on offense and possibly save his back a little bit.
9. Golden State Warriors
They probably will take: Patrick O'Bryant
I think they should take: O'Bryant
They could take a point guard here, but O'Bryant has more upside than any PG available and still fills a need. Rather than play Ike Diogu at center, they could trade Diogu or Troy Murphy for an heir to Baron Davis.
10. Seattle Supersonics
They probably will take: Rodney Carney
I think they should take: Shelden Williams
Seattle has two very young and raw centers. A shooting guard or small forward to spell Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis would be a wise pick, but taking a great interior help defender to help the youngsters would be the best for the team.
11. Orlando Magic
They probably will take: Randy Foye
I think they should take: Ronnie Brewer
As much as they need a shooter, more importantly they need a big guard to pair with Jameer Nelson. Taking Redick here would severely hurt the backcourt defense.
12. New Orleans Hornets
They probably will take: Cedric Simmons
I think they should take: Simmons
There may not be another team with as glaring a need for size as New Orleans. Simmons is the best available big man, and a very good fit next to David West.
13. Philadelphia 76ers
They probably will take: Ronnie Brewer
I think they should take: Rajon Rondo
Brewer would be a good fit, but again, I have him being selected earlier. Philadelphia could use a true point guard. Rondois the best pure point guard available and his length would allow him to be in the backcourt at the same time as Iverson.
14. Utah Jazz
They probably will take: J.J. Redick
I think they should take: Redick
Redick is best suited for a team with a lot of pieces already in place that needs a sniper. Utah is the best example of the right home for him. This would be a match made in heaven.
If I have a chance before the Draft, I will continue both mock drafts, but without all the detail. At this point in such an unpredictable draft, teams could go a bunch of different ways.
Now, finally, for some pre-Draft awards:
Slippery Slider Award - Adam Morrison
As someone being projected as a possible number one pick, I see Morrison dropping when all is said and done. He may not fall as far as someone else, but there is a big difference between falling out of the top five and falling from the middle of the first round to the end of it.
Smartest Move - Bryan Colangelo
Bargnani is the guy he wants. He is in position to take whoever he wants. He should not try to play games. He may be able to trade down and still get Bargnani, but why chance it? I say he will keep the first pick, and kudos to him if he does and takes the young Italian.
Luckiest Team - Minnesota Timberwolves
When their pick rolls around, either someone will have dropped to them that should not have, or a guy that would be a great fit will fall into their laps. Kevin McHale should be a happy man.
Luckiest Player - LaMarcus Aldridge
In Chicago, Aldridge will automatically become the interior scoring option, if not the primary scorer. He will also go to a team that made the playoffs this past year and should only get better. That is not a bad scenario for the second overall pick.
1. Toronto Raptors
They probably will take: Andrea Bargnani
I think they should take: Bargnani
I expect Bryan Colangelo to do what everyone thinks he will. That is a good thing, because Bargnani is the best prospect available.
2. Chicago Bulls
They probably will take: LaMarcus Aldridge
I think they should take: Aldridge
There are rumors of a trade, and for a while the talk was of Tyrus Thomas heading to Chicago, but John Paxson should (and probably will) take the player that will make the biggest impact on his team.
3. Charlotte Bobcats
They probably will take: Rudy Gay
I think they should take: Gay
Gay is the most physically talented player in the draft, and adding him to the Bobcats shifts Gerald Wallace to shooting guard and gives them a very long, atheltic team. They would still need a shooter, but can address that need through other channels.
4. Portland Trailblazers
They probably will take: Adam Morrison
I think they should take: Tyrus Thomas
Morrison is a popular name who happens to be from a school in the Pacific Northwest. That should not decide his draft position. The same goes for Brandon Roy, though I think he would be a better pick than Morrison. Both play the same position as Martell Webster, the team first pick from last year. Darius Miles has one foot out the door, and in Thomas they get a talented "combo forward" and again, the best player available.
5. Atlanta Hawks
They probably will take: Shelden Williams
I think they should take: Brandon Roy
It is rumored that The Landlord has a promise from Atlanta. For their sake, I hope they fulfill this promise by trading down. However, Roy should be their pick here. Putting him in a backcourt with Joe Johnson at the point, with Roy occasionally handling the ball, the Hawks could make a solid playoff run. They could also go with a true point guard and pick Marcus Williams.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
They probably will take: Tyrus Thomas
I think they should take: Adam Morrison
Thomas may fall into their laps, and if he does, I do not blame them for taking him. However, I do not think he should be available for them. Adam Morrison would be. Morrison is projected much higher than I think he should be, but he would be a good complimentary scorer to Kevin Garnett with the sixth pick.
7. Boston Celtics
They probably will take: Marcus Williams
I think they should take: M. Williams
Delonte West is not the answer at the point guard position. Williams is the floor general this team needs with its young core.
8. Houston Rockets
They probably will take: Brandon Roy
I think they should take: Rodney Carney
They need a shooter. Roy would be a solid pick here, but in my scenario, he is off the board. Carney, however, gives them a solid and improving shooter with great athleticism. His defense will allow Tracy McGrady to focus more on offense and possibly save his back a little bit.
9. Golden State Warriors
They probably will take: Patrick O'Bryant
I think they should take: O'Bryant
They could take a point guard here, but O'Bryant has more upside than any PG available and still fills a need. Rather than play Ike Diogu at center, they could trade Diogu or Troy Murphy for an heir to Baron Davis.
10. Seattle Supersonics
They probably will take: Rodney Carney
I think they should take: Shelden Williams
Seattle has two very young and raw centers. A shooting guard or small forward to spell Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis would be a wise pick, but taking a great interior help defender to help the youngsters would be the best for the team.
11. Orlando Magic
They probably will take: Randy Foye
I think they should take: Ronnie Brewer
As much as they need a shooter, more importantly they need a big guard to pair with Jameer Nelson. Taking Redick here would severely hurt the backcourt defense.
12. New Orleans Hornets
They probably will take: Cedric Simmons
I think they should take: Simmons
There may not be another team with as glaring a need for size as New Orleans. Simmons is the best available big man, and a very good fit next to David West.
13. Philadelphia 76ers
They probably will take: Ronnie Brewer
I think they should take: Rajon Rondo
Brewer would be a good fit, but again, I have him being selected earlier. Philadelphia could use a true point guard. Rondois the best pure point guard available and his length would allow him to be in the backcourt at the same time as Iverson.
14. Utah Jazz
They probably will take: J.J. Redick
I think they should take: Redick
Redick is best suited for a team with a lot of pieces already in place that needs a sniper. Utah is the best example of the right home for him. This would be a match made in heaven.
If I have a chance before the Draft, I will continue both mock drafts, but without all the detail. At this point in such an unpredictable draft, teams could go a bunch of different ways.
Now, finally, for some pre-Draft awards:
Slippery Slider Award - Adam Morrison
As someone being projected as a possible number one pick, I see Morrison dropping when all is said and done. He may not fall as far as someone else, but there is a big difference between falling out of the top five and falling from the middle of the first round to the end of it.
Smartest Move - Bryan Colangelo
Bargnani is the guy he wants. He is in position to take whoever he wants. He should not try to play games. He may be able to trade down and still get Bargnani, but why chance it? I say he will keep the first pick, and kudos to him if he does and takes the young Italian.
Luckiest Team - Minnesota Timberwolves
When their pick rolls around, either someone will have dropped to them that should not have, or a guy that would be a great fit will fall into their laps. Kevin McHale should be a happy man.
Luckiest Player - LaMarcus Aldridge
In Chicago, Aldridge will automatically become the interior scoring option, if not the primary scorer. He will also go to a team that made the playoffs this past year and should only get better. That is not a bad scenario for the second overall pick.
posted by Josh at 7:08 PM
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