2006 - 2007 NBA Preview: Southwest Division
Moving on to the Western Conference, we start with its best division, top to bottom, the Southwest. It should be an exciting race between the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks, the three-time NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs, and the hopefully healthy and intriguing Houston Rockets. The New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets were the surprise team last year and should be better this year. The biggest disappointment likes in Memphis, where the Grizzlies have lost Pau Gasol to injury. Even if he is only out half the season, it might be too late by then.
Southwest Division:
1. Dallas Mavericks (60-22)
Key Additions: Anthony Johnson (trade), Austin Croshere (trade), Maurice Ager (draft)
Key Losses: Marquis Daniels (trade), Keith Van Horn (free agent)Despite not even winning their division, the Mavericks survived the Western Conference playoffs and won the first two games of the NBA Finals before succumbing to the Heat. With expectations as high as they have ever been, the Mavericks did only minor tweaking to their roster. Daniels is gone after never having performed up to the level he reached in his rookie campaign. In his place is Johnson, a more traditional and more experienced point guard to spell Devin Harris. What the team loses in youth, it will gain in leadership. Johnson filled in more than admirably for the injured Jamaal Tinsley in Indiana, starting 53 games. Croshere takes the place of Van Horn and will bring a similar scoring spark off the bench while providing more rebounding than his predecessor. The real key addition to the team, however, is Ager. He is a perfect fit for the offense Avery Johnson runs, and in my mind signals a slight shift in philosophy for the Mavs. Instead of having a “win-now” strategy, I see a move to a “win-now and win-later” strategy. Ager will be a low-cost contributor for this year’s division title and many other playoff runs.
2. San Antonio Spurs (63-19)
Key Additions: Jackie Butler (free agent), Francisco Elson (free agent)
Key Losses: Nazr Mohammed (free agent), Rasho Nesterovic (trade)
The Spurs have done it again. The replaced two well-paid big men with two moderately priced big men and actually improved significantly. Mohammed was a solid contributor off of the bench and in limited starts, while Nesterovic provided little. In typical Spurs fashion, they split their mid-level exception on two athletic post men. Elson is a wide body that can defend the opposing centers, leaving Tim Duncan easier match ups against power forwards. Expected to be the starter in the beginning, he likely will not see more than 20-25 minutes a game. In Butler, the Spurs made the most underrated free agent signing of the off-season. How often does a 21-year-old who is six feet, 10 inches tall who averaged nearly 19 points and 12 rebounds per 40 minutes get signed to a contract for a little over two million dollars a year? It will not be long before Butler is starting and playing 30 minutes a game, establishing himself as a strong compliment to Duncan and making him my fantasy sleeper of the year. His presence will make the Spurs a much more formidable playoff opponent than they would be with either Mohammed, Nesterovic, or Elson starting in the pivot.
Key Additions: Shane Battier (trade), Kirk Snyder (trade), Bonzi Wells (free agent)
Key Losses: Stromile Swift (trade)
Last season was a disappointment for the Rockets. Tracy McGrady’s back problems kept him out of the lineup for almost half the season, while Yao Ming missed games in the middle and at the end of the season. In between injuries, Yao finally took the next step towards becoming the top pivot man in the League. There was still work to be done to turn this team into a legitimate contender, but a strong series of off-season moves have got them in position to make a strong playoff run. Battier is not a true power forward, but will spend a lot of time at the four spot. Despite being undersized, he will still provide better all-around play than Swift, while helping to spread opposing defenses with his shooting. Wells, who averaged nearly 8 rebounds as a shooting guard, will make up any disadvantage the frontcourt has on the boards. Juwan Howard should be pushed to the bench to make room in the lineup for Battier, where he can team with Snyder and Luther Head to form a potent second unit. The Rockets have never been this strong under Jeff Van Gundy, and this is a make-or-break year for him. Challenging for the fourth seed in the Western Conference will justify ownerships patience and spending.
Key Additions: Tyson Chandler (trade), Peja Stojakovic (trade), Bobby Jackson (free agent)
Key Losses: P.J. Brown (trade), J.R. Smith (trade), Kirk Snyder (trade)
After the Hornets surprised everyone by playing close to .500 last season, George Shinn followed suit in the off-season by committing to spend on the team. Out is Brown and his veteran presence, replaced by the younger, more athletic, but also more enigmatic, Chandler. He will provide better help defense in the paint than Brown did, and should see his offensive production rise from last season’s 5.3 points per game thanks to alley-oops and drop-offs from Chris Paul. The presence of both Stojakovic and Jackson will provide a significant upgrade behind the 3-point line, allowing Paul room to drive and dish. The team does lose quite a bit of athleticism with the losses of Smith and Snyder, but it will be a far more complete team. This may not show up in their record, since they play in conference that was already very strong and has improved, but as this team builds rapport, they will get their share of big wins and make a run towards a playoff spot, eventually coming up short.
Key Additions: Rudy Gay (draft), Alexander Johnson (draft), Kyle Lowry (draft), Stromile Swift (trade)
Key Losses: Shane Battier (trade), Bobby Jackson (free agent), Lorenzen Wright (free agent)
It looks like the streak of postseason losses for Memphis will continue for another year, as it will be hard to break it without playing a playoff game. With Pau Gasol out until, most likely, the middle of January combined with the losses of Battier, Jackson, and Wright, the Grizzlies will not be able to keep up with the rest of the Western Conference. There is reason for hope though. The Grizzlies had one of the top drafts of any team in the League. Gay was one of the most talented players in the draft and a candidate for the top pick for most of the season. He ended up dropping to Houston at the eighth pick, who then traded him to Memphis. The cost to Memphis was a significant contributor in Battier, but Jerry West knew he had to seize this opportunity. In time, Gay should develop into one of the top small forwards in the League. The team’s later draft choices, Lowry and Johnson, may both be considered significant steals in a few seasons. Johnson, taken with the 45th pick, should end up seeing more minutes than he normally would have due to the injury to Gasol, but has the body and instincts that will make him a contributor on the boards almost immediately. If the team starts slow, Lowry may also see more time, helping to prepare for a bounce back season next year.
Southwest Division:
1. Dallas Mavericks (60-22)
Key Additions: Anthony Johnson (trade), Austin Croshere (trade), Maurice Ager (draft)
Key Losses: Marquis Daniels (trade), Keith Van Horn (free agent)Despite not even winning their division, the Mavericks survived the Western Conference playoffs and won the first two games of the NBA Finals before succumbing to the Heat. With expectations as high as they have ever been, the Mavericks did only minor tweaking to their roster. Daniels is gone after never having performed up to the level he reached in his rookie campaign. In his place is Johnson, a more traditional and more experienced point guard to spell Devin Harris. What the team loses in youth, it will gain in leadership. Johnson filled in more than admirably for the injured Jamaal Tinsley in Indiana, starting 53 games. Croshere takes the place of Van Horn and will bring a similar scoring spark off the bench while providing more rebounding than his predecessor. The real key addition to the team, however, is Ager. He is a perfect fit for the offense Avery Johnson runs, and in my mind signals a slight shift in philosophy for the Mavs. Instead of having a “win-now” strategy, I see a move to a “win-now and win-later” strategy. Ager will be a low-cost contributor for this year’s division title and many other playoff runs.
2. San Antonio Spurs (63-19)
Key Additions: Jackie Butler (free agent), Francisco Elson (free agent)
Key Losses: Nazr Mohammed (free agent), Rasho Nesterovic (trade)
The Spurs have done it again. The replaced two well-paid big men with two moderately priced big men and actually improved significantly. Mohammed was a solid contributor off of the bench and in limited starts, while Nesterovic provided little. In typical Spurs fashion, they split their mid-level exception on two athletic post men. Elson is a wide body that can defend the opposing centers, leaving Tim Duncan easier match ups against power forwards. Expected to be the starter in the beginning, he likely will not see more than 20-25 minutes a game. In Butler, the Spurs made the most underrated free agent signing of the off-season. How often does a 21-year-old who is six feet, 10 inches tall who averaged nearly 19 points and 12 rebounds per 40 minutes get signed to a contract for a little over two million dollars a year? It will not be long before Butler is starting and playing 30 minutes a game, establishing himself as a strong compliment to Duncan and making him my fantasy sleeper of the year. His presence will make the Spurs a much more formidable playoff opponent than they would be with either Mohammed, Nesterovic, or Elson starting in the pivot.
Key Additions: Shane Battier (trade), Kirk Snyder (trade), Bonzi Wells (free agent)
Key Losses: Stromile Swift (trade)
Last season was a disappointment for the Rockets. Tracy McGrady’s back problems kept him out of the lineup for almost half the season, while Yao Ming missed games in the middle and at the end of the season. In between injuries, Yao finally took the next step towards becoming the top pivot man in the League. There was still work to be done to turn this team into a legitimate contender, but a strong series of off-season moves have got them in position to make a strong playoff run. Battier is not a true power forward, but will spend a lot of time at the four spot. Despite being undersized, he will still provide better all-around play than Swift, while helping to spread opposing defenses with his shooting. Wells, who averaged nearly 8 rebounds as a shooting guard, will make up any disadvantage the frontcourt has on the boards. Juwan Howard should be pushed to the bench to make room in the lineup for Battier, where he can team with Snyder and Luther Head to form a potent second unit. The Rockets have never been this strong under Jeff Van Gundy, and this is a make-or-break year for him. Challenging for the fourth seed in the Western Conference will justify ownerships patience and spending.
Key Additions: Tyson Chandler (trade), Peja Stojakovic (trade), Bobby Jackson (free agent)
Key Losses: P.J. Brown (trade), J.R. Smith (trade), Kirk Snyder (trade)
After the Hornets surprised everyone by playing close to .500 last season, George Shinn followed suit in the off-season by committing to spend on the team. Out is Brown and his veteran presence, replaced by the younger, more athletic, but also more enigmatic, Chandler. He will provide better help defense in the paint than Brown did, and should see his offensive production rise from last season’s 5.3 points per game thanks to alley-oops and drop-offs from Chris Paul. The presence of both Stojakovic and Jackson will provide a significant upgrade behind the 3-point line, allowing Paul room to drive and dish. The team does lose quite a bit of athleticism with the losses of Smith and Snyder, but it will be a far more complete team. This may not show up in their record, since they play in conference that was already very strong and has improved, but as this team builds rapport, they will get their share of big wins and make a run towards a playoff spot, eventually coming up short.
Key Additions: Rudy Gay (draft), Alexander Johnson (draft), Kyle Lowry (draft), Stromile Swift (trade)
Key Losses: Shane Battier (trade), Bobby Jackson (free agent), Lorenzen Wright (free agent)
It looks like the streak of postseason losses for Memphis will continue for another year, as it will be hard to break it without playing a playoff game. With Pau Gasol out until, most likely, the middle of January combined with the losses of Battier, Jackson, and Wright, the Grizzlies will not be able to keep up with the rest of the Western Conference. There is reason for hope though. The Grizzlies had one of the top drafts of any team in the League. Gay was one of the most talented players in the draft and a candidate for the top pick for most of the season. He ended up dropping to Houston at the eighth pick, who then traded him to Memphis. The cost to Memphis was a significant contributor in Battier, but Jerry West knew he had to seize this opportunity. In time, Gay should develop into one of the top small forwards in the League. The team’s later draft choices, Lowry and Johnson, may both be considered significant steals in a few seasons. Johnson, taken with the 45th pick, should end up seeing more minutes than he normally would have due to the injury to Gasol, but has the body and instincts that will make him a contributor on the boards almost immediately. If the team starts slow, Lowry may also see more time, helping to prepare for a bounce back season next year.
posted by Josh at 11:04 AM
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